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2022-12-14T04:13:47Z
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ある新規出店の事業評価 : モンテカルロシミュレーションによるリアルオプション的手法の試み
Project Evaluation of Some New Store Openings : A Trial Attempt on Real Option Approach by Monte Carlo Simulation
吉岡, 佑磨
高橋, 正人
松村, 嘉之
大谷, 毅
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Store business
Monte Carlo simulation
Real option
Feasibility for opening new store retailer, B, is discussed based on the data of already existing store retailer A. For the business status of A and B stores, we assumed the retail of food and beverages. When manager of A store plans to open new store B, the decision of opening B store is regarded as call option. Here, we simulated the net present value, NPV, for future cash flows of A and B stores based on the real past data already existing A store by Monte Carlo simulation. The daily cash flows of A store shows complex changes repeating increases and decreases. However, the fixed tendency is observed by taking averages of the data during constant period. As for the B store, the same tendency can be applied to the simulation of future cash flows of B store. Differences between A and B stores are location conditions, i.e. the amount of passerby, local community in the vicinity of the store and the amount of parking places. Considering these factors, future cash flows of A and B stores are simulated. Taking into consideration of the cash flows of A stores mainly, the withdrawal of A store (withdrawal option) is decided if the cash flows of A store largely decreases. However, the cash flows of A store increases, the open of new store B (expansion option) is decided. NPV values of cash flows of A+B stores are evaluated under the condition where the withdrawal and expansion options are executed according to the change of cash flows of A store.
Article
日本感性工学会論文誌. 15(4):443-453 (2016)
日本感性工学会
2016
jpn
journal article
VoR
http://hdl.handle.net/10091/00019251
https://soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/18489
https://doi.org/10.5057/jjske.TJSKE-D-16-00001
10.5057/jjske.TJSKE-D-16-00001
1884-0833
AA12442067
日本感性工学会論文誌
15
4
443
453
https://soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/18489/files/Project_Evaluation_Some_New_Store_Openings.pdf
application/pdf
3.4 MB
2016-10-28