2022-08-19T11:11:08Zhttps://soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp/oaioai:soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp:000109152021-03-01T12:01:13ZA Model Analysis of the Dairy Industry of Japan牛乳経済の模型分析高坂, 祐輔Most economic research dealing with specifically milk and dairy products in Japan has emphasized the natures of the production and marketing of these commodities. Less attention has been given to statistical analysis of their production, demand and pricing as an interrelated process. The principal contribution of this article is the presentation of detailed analyses of the major factors that affect the demand for, production and pricing of milk and dairy products in Japan, and the quantification in a statistical model of the relationships among those factors. The statistical formulation of the dairy industry uses quarterly data - 1959-I～1962-IV -and contains eight sequential equations-six stochatic behavioral equations relating to production, domestic use and pricing of milk and dairy products and two identities. The milk production elasticities, evaluated at the mean values, are . 35 with respect to the lagged real milk price received by farmers and -. 25 with respect to the lagged real feed price. Studies of actual cost accounts for various farms in Japan reveal the overwhelming importance of feed as a cost of milk production. It is considered that the above fact agrees with the sensitiveness to prices. The demand elasticities for dairy products, on the average, are -1. 21 with respect to the real prices of dairy products, 35 with respect to real national income and 4. 39 with respect to population. These measures indicate that the dairy industry of Japan has a bright prospect under the condition that farmers, producers and processors endeavor for reducing costs of milk and dairy products. Based on the coefficients of the reduced form equations, lagged real milk price received by farmers is the most important contributory determined endogenous factor to maintenance of milk production, and population is the most important contributory exogenous factor to maintenance of real milk price received by farmers, real retail milk price and consumption of dairy products. It seems fairly safe to state that population is the chief supporter of the stable growth of the dairy industry of Japan. Our model is a system of linear stochastic difference equations and mathematical analysis permits an examination of the mechanism of the endogenous part of the system and, in particular, the prediction of the time path which the system would take were it not subject to exogenous influences. This is done by finding the characteristic roots of the system of linear homogeneous difference equations. Based on the examination of the endogenous part of our system, the time paths of our endogenous variables do not fluctuate or oscillate and movements of our system damp-down to equilibrium. Therefore, movements expressed by our model are stable provided the disturbances and exogenous variables as function of time are sufficiently well behaved.Article信州大学農学部紀要 3(4): 317-354(1965)departmental bulletin paper信州大学農学部1965-12-25application/pdf信州大学農学部紀要433173540583-0621AN00121352https://soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/10915/files/Agriculture03-04-01.pdfjpn