2022-01-27T20:37:53Zhttps://soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp/oaioai:soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp:000124332021-10-05T02:26:18Z1221:1222Accuracy of Tsunami Numerical Forecasting with the Rapid Estimation Method of Fault Parameters: A Case of Two Fault Planes with Different Stress Drop of the 1944 Tonankai Earthquake断層パラメータ即時的推定法による津波数値予報の精度: 1944年東南海地震を例とした応力降下量に違いのある2枚の断層の場合今村, 文彦泉谷, 恭男首藤, 伸夫Tsunami warning systemRapid estimation of fault parametersDifferent stress dropThe 1944 Tonankai earthquake tsunamiRapid estimation method of fault parameters is proposed for the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, which has two fault planes with different stress drop in Aida's model. The strong motion accelerograms calculated from the stochastic propagating rupture model are used as the pseudoobserved data. The fault length estimated from them is shorter than that of the Aida's model because of neglected effect of fault with the smaller stress drop. Comparison of results by the tsunami simulation on Aida's and rapid estimation models shows that the tsunami height along the shoreline is affected not by this estimated error but the difference of total amount of sea bottom deformation. The real time forecasting of tsunami warning is performed in the eastern coast of the Kii peninsula very closed to the source region. The time available for numerical computation is thus severely limited. However, the numerical forecasting is possible in time at least by the arrival of maximum tsunami waves.Article地震 第2輯. 44(3):211-219 (1991)journal article日本地震学会1991-09-24application/pdf地震 第2輯3442112190037-1114AN00305741https://soar-ir.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/12433/files/Accuracy_Tsunami_Numerical_Forecasting.pdfjpn