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The selection of eggs for investigation has been influenced by the facts that the poultry industry of Japan is a important contributor to gross farm income, and eggs are the most important component of gross poultry income. It was seemed advisable to choose an industry where current period economic influences on supply might be expected to be strong and where interrelations between demand and supply would consequently be seen. In general, it is in these situations that the simultaneousequations method should be expected to assert its superiority and therefore provide a suitable empirical testing ground for the alternative procedures. The selection of egg industry also has been influenced by this aim. In order to work with the simultaneousequations approach, three complete models of the egg industry were formulated. Model I and Model II were formulated to measure the demand relationships of eggs in the post war years and Model III to measure the ones in the pre war years. Model I and Model II involve equations relating to production, domestic use, margin, and an identity that states that the domestic use must equal the total supply. In addition to the above four equations, Model IIIinvolves more an equation relating to import. Model II differs from Model I to the extent that the variable contained in the supply relationship in Model II is substituted for a part of the variables contained in the same relationship in Model I. The demand relationship in Model III differs from the same relationships in Model I and Model II to the extent that the demand relationship in Model III contains variables representing quantities of supply of items thought to be substitute or complementary goods with eggs. Model I and Model II were estimated with annual datas from the period 195059 and Model III from the period 192437. These three egg models are nonlinear equation systems. Several modifications were made in fitting parameters to the models. Because the equations in the models must be stated in linear terms, therefore the endogeneous variables in the models used in nonlinear combinations were transformed into linear approximations by use of formula in Klein. The linear approximations were thensubstituted for the original variables. Combinations of variables that are assumed to be entirely predetermined were treated as a single composite without linearization as they are assumed to be given. In fitting parameters to the models, both the leastsquares method and the limitedinformation method were used. Coefficients obtained by fitting the demand relationships in all the models by the limitedinformation approach differ from the leastsquares results for the comparable demand relationships. But coefficients obtained by fitting the demand relationships in Model I and Model II by the limitedinformation method differ more from the leastsquares results for the comparable demand relationships than do coefficients obtained for the same relationships in Model III. This seems intuitively, not statistically, to be partly due to the structural changes in the egg supply. In the pre war years the general distribution of farms had poultry and where flocks of very small size were predominant and eggs were produced largely or wholly for the use of the farm family. This small scale egg production was a contributory factor to the nonsensitiveness to price. In the post war years technological improvements in egg production have substantially reduced costs. Many of the technological improvements have been most practical for the owners of large flocks. Accordingly, there is a trend away from numerous small flocks and toward fewer and larger flocks. It is considered that this tendency has moderated the degree of the nonsensitiveness to price. Coefficients obtained by fitting the demand relationships in Model II by the limitedinformation approach differ from coefficients obtained by fitting the same relationships in Model I by the same approach. These results indicate that the limitedinformation estimates of a given equation may be quite sensitive to addition or omission of predetermined variables in the remainder of the systems. The values of the DurbinWatson dstatistics for some of the equations fitted by the leastsquares method are small or large, indicating that the hypothesis of serial independence in the residuals is rejected, but the values of the dstatistics for all the equations fitted by the limitedinformation method show nonserialcorrelation of residuals or fall in the inconclusive test range. It appears to be impossible at the present time to draw reliable overall conclusions about the superiority of the limitedinformation method, but it seems fairy safe to state that the limitedinformation method is superior to the singleequation leastsquares method in respect of the values of the DurbinWatson dstatistics. Measures of the elasticity of demand for eggs with respect to the relative egg price during the post war period studied ranged from .91 to 2.13. Larger elasticities were obtained from the equations fitted by the limitedinformation method than by the leastsquares method. Measures of the elasticity of demand for eggs with respect to relative per capita income during the same period ranged from 1.00 to 1.16. Near elasticities were obtained from the equations fitted by the both methods. All the above elasticities are based on the statistically significant coefficients. Measures of the elasticity of demand with respect to the relative egg price during the pre war period studied ranged from .73 to 1.03. None of the demand equations fitted by the both methods gave elasticities of demand with respect to relative per capita income that differed significantly from zero. Difficulty in obtaining statistically significant income response appears to be partly due to the interrelationships among income, price of eggs, and supply of related goods. 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鶏卵需要の計量的分析
http://hdl.handle.net/10091/2209
http://hdl.handle.net/10091/2209e237c98f90734803a12f050b5140695d
名前 / ファイル  ライセンス  アクション 

Agriculture030101.pdf (1.8 MB)


Item type  紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1)  

公開日  20090303  
タイトル  
言語  ja  
タイトル  鶏卵需要の計量的分析  
タイトル  
言語  en  
タイトル  Econometric Analysis of the Demand for Eggs inJapan.  
言語  
言語  jpn  
資源タイプ  
資源  http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501  
タイプ  departmental bulletin paper  
著者 
高坂, 祐輔
× 高坂, 祐輔 

出版者  
出版者  信州大学農学部  
引用  
内容記述タイプ  Other  
内容記述  信州大学農学部紀要 3(1): 132(1962)  
書誌情報 
信州大学農学部紀要 巻 3, 号 1, p. 132, 発行日 19621225 

抄録  
内容記述タイプ  Abstract  
内容記述  Two objectives underlie this study: The first is a quantitative analysis of the demand for eggs in Japan and the second is an examination of the merits of the simultaneousequations method. The selection of eggs for investigation has been influenced by the facts that the poultry industry of Japan is a important contributor to gross farm income, and eggs are the most important component of gross poultry income. It was seemed advisable to choose an industry where current period economic influences on supply might be expected to be strong and where interrelations between demand and supply would consequently be seen. In general, it is in these situations that the simultaneousequations method should be expected to assert its superiority and therefore provide a suitable empirical testing ground for the alternative procedures. The selection of egg industry also has been influenced by this aim. In order to work with the simultaneousequations approach, three complete models of the egg industry were formulated. Model I and Model II were formulated to measure the demand relationships of eggs in the post war years and Model III to measure the ones in the pre war years. Model I and Model II involve equations relating to production, domestic use, margin, and an identity that states that the domestic use must equal the total supply. In addition to the above four equations, Model IIIinvolves more an equation relating to import. Model II differs from Model I to the extent that the variable contained in the supply relationship in Model II is substituted for a part of the variables contained in the same relationship in Model I. The demand relationship in Model III differs from the same relationships in Model I and Model II to the extent that the demand relationship in Model III contains variables representing quantities of supply of items thought to be substitute or complementary goods with eggs. Model I and Model II were estimated with annual datas from the period 195059 and Model III from the period 192437. These three egg models are nonlinear equation systems. Several modifications were made in fitting parameters to the models. Because the equations in the models must be stated in linear terms, therefore the endogeneous variables in the models used in nonlinear combinations were transformed into linear approximations by use of formula in Klein. The linear approximations were thensubstituted for the original variables. Combinations of variables that are assumed to be entirely predetermined were treated as a single composite without linearization as they are assumed to be given. In fitting parameters to the models, both the leastsquares method and the limitedinformation method were used. Coefficients obtained by fitting the demand relationships in all the models by the limitedinformation approach differ from the leastsquares results for the comparable demand relationships. But coefficients obtained by fitting the demand relationships in Model I and Model II by the limitedinformation method differ more from the leastsquares results for the comparable demand relationships than do coefficients obtained for the same relationships in Model III. This seems intuitively, not statistically, to be partly due to the structural changes in the egg supply. In the pre war years the general distribution of farms had poultry and where flocks of very small size were predominant and eggs were produced largely or wholly for the use of the farm family. This small scale egg production was a contributory factor to the nonsensitiveness to price. In the post war years technological improvements in egg production have substantially reduced costs. Many of the technological improvements have been most practical for the owners of large flocks. Accordingly, there is a trend away from numerous small flocks and toward fewer and larger flocks. It is considered that this tendency has moderated the degree of the nonsensitiveness to price. Coefficients obtained by fitting the demand relationships in Model II by the limitedinformation approach differ from coefficients obtained by fitting the same relationships in Model I by the same approach. These results indicate that the limitedinformation estimates of a given equation may be quite sensitive to addition or omission of predetermined variables in the remainder of the systems. The values of the DurbinWatson dstatistics for some of the equations fitted by the leastsquares method are small or large, indicating that the hypothesis of serial independence in the residuals is rejected, but the values of the dstatistics for all the equations fitted by the limitedinformation method show nonserialcorrelation of residuals or fall in the inconclusive test range. It appears to be impossible at the present time to draw reliable overall conclusions about the superiority of the limitedinformation method, but it seems fairy safe to state that the limitedinformation method is superior to the singleequation leastsquares method in respect of the values of the DurbinWatson dstatistics. Measures of the elasticity of demand for eggs with respect to the relative egg price during the post war period studied ranged from .91 to 2.13. Larger elasticities were obtained from the equations fitted by the limitedinformation method than by the leastsquares method. Measures of the elasticity of demand for eggs with respect to relative per capita income during the same period ranged from 1.00 to 1.16. Near elasticities were obtained from the equations fitted by the both methods. All the above elasticities are based on the statistically significant coefficients. Measures of the elasticity of demand with respect to the relative egg price during the pre war period studied ranged from .73 to 1.03. None of the demand equations fitted by the both methods gave elasticities of demand with respect to relative per capita income that differed significantly from zero. Difficulty in obtaining statistically significant income response appears to be partly due to the interrelationships among income, price of eggs, and supply of related goods. These measures indicate that the structure of the demand for eggs in the pre war years was inelastic, while on the contrary the structure in the post war years are elastic and therefore the egg industry of Japan has a bright prospect under the conditions that farmers endeavor for reducing costs of egg production and marketing.  
資源タイプ（コンテンツの種類）  
内容記述タイプ  Other  
内容記述  Article  
ISSN  
収録物識別子タイプ  ISSN  
収録物識別子  05830621  
書誌レコードID  
収録物識別子タイプ  NCID  
収録物識別子  AN00121352  
出版タイプ  
出版タイプ  VoR  
出版タイプResource  http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 